Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 1.346803 1.396918 1.448499 1.505697 1.567519 1.632516 1.706267
2025-12-28 1.289265 1.356971 1.428741 1.510913 1.602940 1.703491 1.822589
2026-01-04 1.252876 1.333800 1.421600 1.524768 1.643794 1.778246 1.943768
2026-01-11 1.210274 1.299815 1.398737 1.517398 1.657657 1.820583 2.027990
2026-01-18 1.177657 1.274566 1.383357 1.516308 1.677002 1.868655 2.120714
2026-01-25 1.135079 1.235495 1.349574 1.490961 1.664809 1.876491 2.162317
2026-02-01 1.106124 1.210752 1.331031 1.482221 1.671411 1.906793 2.233669
2026-02-08 1.079179 1.187091 1.312445 1.472018 1.674898 1.932395 2.299623
2026-02-15 1.054234 1.164740 1.294311 1.461146 1.676371 1.954659 2.361743
2026-02-22 1.038195 1.152359 1.287557 1.463793 1.694793 1.999711 2.458836
2026-03-01 1.010240 1.124571 1.260809 1.439784 1.676764 1.993785 2.480341
2026-03-08 0.988117 1.103242 1.241315 1.424179 1.668921 2.001045 2.521511
2026-03-15 0.967791 1.083976 1.224281 1.411724 1.665520 2.015373 2.576529
2026-03-22 0.959526 1.079309 1.225305 1.422680 1.694235 2.076896 2.711574
2026-03-29 0.954523 1.078447 1.230960 1.439742 1.731965 2.153773 2.880311
2026-04-05 0.941099 1.066544 1.221971 1.436624 1.740751 2.187455 2.978843
2026-04-12 0.930404 1.057771 1.216686 1.438184 1.756086 2.231847 3.101289
2026-04-19 0.910869 1.037249 1.195500 1.417127 1.737369 2.221401 3.120923
2026-04-26 0.898139 1.025161 1.185046 1.410522 1.739563 2.244251 3.206211
2026-05-03 0.885313 1.012650 1.173683 1.402207 1.738712 2.261881 3.283125
2026-05-10 0.872697 1.000136 1.161989 1.393003 1.736023 2.276119 3.354693
2026-05-17 0.865385 0.994314 1.159005 1.395910 1.751708 2.321832 3.497723
2026-05-24 0.848987 0.976328 1.139309 1.374381 1.728815 2.300230 3.492358